It’s no secret that the lottery is hard to win, but the exact odds are interesting to look at, especially to see how rule changes have affected players’ chances. Here we break down the odds for each prize tier in Lotto, comparing the original game to the current setup:
Jackpot (Match 6 numbers): When Lotto launched (6/49 format), the chance of hitting all 6 numbers was about 1 in 13,983,816 (~14 million to 1). After increasing to 59 balls, the odds lengthened dramatically – now it’s about 1 in 45,057,474 for the jackpot. In other words, it went from roughly a 14-million-to-one longshot to a 45-million-to-one longshot to win the top prize. This reflects how much harder the jackpot became to win post-2015.
Match 5 + Bonus Ball: Originally, matching five numbers plus the Bonus Ball (the second-tier prize) had odds on the order of 1 in 2.33 million. With the current 59-ball format, those odds worsened to about 1 in 7.5 million. On the bright side, today the reward for this feat is a fixed £1 million prize, whereas in the old days it varied (often around £100k+ depending on sales). So although it’s harder to do now, it guarantees a bigger payout if it happens.
Match 5 numbers: Without the bonus ball, matching 5 out of 6 winning numbers used to be roughly a 1 in 55,492 chance in the 6/49 game. Now, with more numbers in the drum, the odds of exactly 5 matches are about 1 in 144,414. So this tier also became much harder to hit after the changes (nearly three times harder). The current prize for matching 5 is fixed at £1,750 per winner, whereas in the past it was a share of a prize pool (often in the low thousands of pounds range, so not a dramatic difference in typical payout).
Match 4 numbers: The probability of matching four numbers in the original format was around 1 in 1,033 (roughly one in a thousand). With 59 balls now, it’s about 1 in 2,179. So four-number wins are about twice as hard to come by nowadays. Currently this wins you £140, fixed (it used to be a variable prize, often around £100).
Match 3 numbers: Back in the 6/49 days, the easiest cash prize – matching three numbers – had odds of about 1 in 57. In the 6/59 game, matching three has odds of roughly 1 in 96. This prize tier is much more frequent than the others, and it yields a £30 prize now (originally it was a fixed £10 for many years, then £25 after 2013). Even though it’s harder to get three numbers now, the prize is higher than it used to be, which somewhat compensates for the longshot jackpot odds in terms of overall player experience.
Match 2 numbers: In the original Lotto, there was no prize for matching just two numbers – your ticket was a loser in that case. Since October 2015, however, matching two numbers wins you a Free Lucky Dip (a free ticket for the next draw). The odds of getting at least two numbers correct in the current game are roughly 1 in 10. This addition of a consolation prize dramatically improved the “something-for-your-money” factor. In fact, the introduction of the match-2 free ticket changed the overall odds of winning any prize from about 1 in 54 (under the old system, where you needed 3+ matches to win) to about 1 in 9.3 in the new system. So while the jackpot became harder to snag, players now have a much better chance of winning at least something each time they play – even if that something is just another shot in the next draw.
To summarise the odds: The chance of winning the jackpot is extremely small (tens of millions to one), and that chance got roughly three times smaller when the game moved from 49 to 59 balls. The odds for all the other tiers also lengthened with more balls, meaning any given ticket is less likely to hit a winning combination than before. However, the lottery has tried to mitigate this by adding the free-ticket prize for 2 matches and keeping some decent odds at the low end – about 1 in 10 to win at least a free go, and about 1 in 97 to win a £30 prize. The overall probability of winning any prize in the current Lotto is often quoted around 1 in 9 or 10, which sounds pretty encouraging. Just keep in mind the flip side: the chance of winning big (say £50,000 or more) is still millions-to-one. Lotto is, and always has been, a game of long odds – but with a £2 ticket people are essentially paying for a bit of hope and excitement, and knowing those odds is part of the fun (or frustration!).